MLB Free Pick - Baltimore at Cincinnati

Left-hander Cole Irvin (2-1, 3.49 ERA) is slated to start for the Orioles against Reds right-hander Hunter Greene (1-2, 3.63). The Orioles moved into sole possession of first place in the American League East on Thursday afternoon, when they beat the visiting Yankees 7-2 in the finale of a four-game series. The Reds had a day off after concluding a 2-4 road trip with a 6-2 loss to the San Diego Padres in the rubber game of a three-game set on Wednesday. Both Irvin and Greene earned wins with scoreless seven-inning outings on Saturday. Irvin allowed four hits in the Orioles' 7-0 victory over the Oakland Athletics, while Greene surrendered just one hit -- a fifth-inning double -- as the Reds beat the Texas Rangers 8-4. Irvin is 0-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three career games (one start) against the Reds. Greene has never opposed the Orioles in his three major league seasons.

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Rating: 2 Units

Orlando erased a ten-point deficit on the road in game five to cover and has played much better at Kia Center in this series. The visiting Cavaliers have not found a way to keep the Magic off the glass since game two and will be vulnerable again tomorrow with Allen (10.5 RPG) uncertain to play. I expect Orlando to punish Cleveland on offense at the rim if Allen is less than 100 percent or unavailable. Expect the Magic to take good care of the basketball and knock down more threes at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Let's check the advantages for the Mets in this game. They average more runs. New York's starting pitcher has a better ERA and FIP. In the bullpen, Tampa hasn't been in the same league this season. Even their records at home (8-9 for the Rays) and on the road (7-5 for the Mets) favor the visiting team. New York is coming off a win, while the Rays have dropped five of six (eight of 10 to stretch it further). Take the Mets to win this one. 

Rating: 2 Units

Everything about this game screams Guardians victory. They're at home, with an offense that's fifth in scoring, against a pitching staff that gives up more than five runs per contest. Offensively, Cleveland shouldn't have any issues. Nor should their pitchers, starting with Tanner Bibee and his 2.96 April ERA. Cleveland is perfect in his outings this season. With a late lead, the Guardians will only turn to a bullpen that has been better than every other in 2024. 

Rating: 2 Units

Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck (3-2, 1.60 ERA) will look to continue his breakout season when he takes the mound in the series opener. Houck, 27, has walked five batters and struck out 41 in 39 1/3 innings this season. In three career starts against the Twins, Houck is 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA. He has walked five and struck out 17 in 17 1/3 innings. Minnesota will counter with right-hander Chris Paddack (2-1, 5.88), who is set to make his sixth start of the season. He has earned the victory in each of his past two starts, although he allowed four runs on eight hits in five innings in his most recent outing against the Angels. Paddack has faced Boston only once in his career, and it did not go well. He gave up six runs on seven hits in 2 1/3 innings, leaving him with an 0-1 record and a 23.14 ERA against the Red Sox.